三江源牧户参与草地生态保护的意愿

牧民对环境保护的响应是生态保护战略有效实施的关键,主体参与意愿直接影响生态保护项目实施的成效和可持续性,是区域生态经济可持续发展的前提。通过对三江源地区约283户藏族牧民通过翻译进行结构式访谈,采用Logistic模型从主体角度探讨了牧户愿意参与生态保护行为响应的主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)三江源区域约87%的牧户认为生态保护对牧户有好处,但受各种内外部因素的影响只有近70%的牧户是在政府主导下基于有限理性而被动的参与生态保护行为响应。(2)三江源牧户参与生态保护行为响应的意愿主要受当地政府的保护力度及牧户对生态保护外部性的认知水平、生计水平、外界接触程度、工作机会的正影响,并受牧户的年龄、离中心城镇的距离和区域气候恶劣情况等因素的负影响,系数依次为:2.22、3.98、1.93、2.26、1.48、-1.63、-2.43、-0.92。(3)牧户的生计水平、退化感知和外部性认知是影响三江源牧户参与生态保护意愿的关键因素,牧户参与生态保护意愿的概率不仅仅是牧户出于自身利益和未知风险考虑下被动的响应,更是当地政府的环境知识宣传和保护投入影响下个体的抉择结果。(4)创造更多的就业机会和解决牧户的单一化生计问题,构建完善地生态补偿机制让牧户分享生态保护的外部性效益,并激励牧户主动参与生态保护行为响应,才能最终实现区域生态保护、牧户幸福和生态经济可持续发展的多赢局面。     

不同区域森林火灾对生态因子的响应及其概率模型

火灾是影响森林生态系统过程的重要干扰之一,其对森林生态系统内各生态因子的响应各不相同.由于植被状况及生态环境的不同,森林火灾的时空分布特征在中国不同植被气候类型内表现不同,根据植被气候类型分类系统,将中国主要森林火灾地区划分为4个区域:东北(冷温带松林)、华北(落叶阔叶林)、东南(常绿阔叶林)和西南(热带雨林),应用遥感监测数据和地面环境数据,以时空变量、生态因子(植被生长变化指数、湿度等)为可选自变量,应用半参数化Logistic回归模型,就森林火险对不同生态影响因子的响应规律进行了分析,建立了基于生态因子的着火概率模型和大火蔓延概率模型,通过模拟及实际数据散点图、火险概率图,评估了模型应用价值.结果表明,土壤湿度及植被含水量在落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林、热带雨林地区对着火概率影响显著.在4个植被气候区内,土壤及凋落物湿度对大火蔓延的作用较小.在冷温带松林、落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林地区,植被生长的年内变化对火灾发生的影响显著,在常绿阔叶林地区,年内植被生长变化对大火蔓延的作用较小.森林火险概率与各生态因子的相关关系主要呈现出非线性.不同植被气候区内,火险概率受不同生态因子组合的影响,这与不同区域的植被状况及生态环境不同有关.在不同植被气候类型,应用时空变量、生态因子建立半参数化logistic回归模型,进行着火概率和大火蔓延概率的模拟具有可行性和实际应用能力.为进一步分析森林生态系统与火灾之间的动态关系、展开生态系统火灾干扰研究提供了理论基础.     

A plant‐traits approach to assessing the success of alien weed species in irrigated Mediterranean orchards

In addition to their impact on natural habitats, invasive alien plants can have a significant negative effect on agricultural systems and cause economic losses. Flood‐irrigated orchards in the Mediterranean Basin are vulnerable to the invasion of alien weeds, primarily because of the traditional management practices used in the orchards, which are characterized by high soil moisture during the dry summer period, nutrient availability and high levels of disturbance. This study sought to determine whether their biological traits can explain the success of alien weed species. To answer this question, 408 floristic relevés were conducted in 136 flood‐irrigated orchards on the Plains of Lleida (Catalonia, NE of Spain). Richness and cover of native and alien weeds were compared. Furthermore, a set of biological traits were compared between successful and non‐successful weeds for the whole data and separately between native and alien weeds using logistic regression and classification trees. In flood‐irrigated orchards, alien species covered most of their area, even though the richness of alien species was lower than that of the native species. The most important species were C4 species with seeds dispersed by water, and on the other hand, rosulate and caespitose‐reptant hemicryptophytes with long flowering period. Most of these traits fitted with those of the invasive alien weeds, which were mostly C4 species with seeds dispersed by water. Perennial life form characterized successful native weeds. In this study, we discuss how the traditional management of flood irrigation in fruit‐tree orchards favours invasive alien weeds that have specific traits, acting as a reservoir for the spread of alien weeds into other crops and surrounding riparian habitats. We also propose changing management practices in order to avoid the selection of alien weeds and to promote native species.     

Validity of ultrasound muscle thickness measurements for predicting leg skeletal muscle mass in healthy Japanese middle-aged and older individuals

Background

The skeletal muscle mass of the lower limb plays a role in its mobility during daily life. From the perspective of physical resources, leg muscle mass dominantly decreases after the end of the fifth decade. Therefore, an accurate estimate of the muscle mass is important for the middle-aged and older population. The present study aimed to clarify the validity of ultrasound muscle thickness (MT) measurements for predicting leg skeletal muscle mass (SM) in the healthy Japanese middle-aged and older population.

Findings

MTs at four sites of the lower limb and the bone-free lean tissue mass (LTM) of the right leg were determined using brightness-mode ultrasonography and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), respectively, in 44 women and 33 men, 52- to 78-years old. LTM was used as a representative variable of leg skeletal muscle mass. In the model-development group (30 women and 22 men), regression analysis produced an equation with R² and standard error of the estimate (SEE) of 0.958 and 0.3 kg, respectively: LTM (kg) = 0.01464 × (MT_SUM×L) (cm²) - 2.767, where MT_SUM is the sum of the product of MTs at four sites, and L is length of segment where MT is determined. The estimated LTM (7.0 ± 1.7 kg) did not significantly differ from the measured LTM (7.0 ± 1.7 kg), without a significant systematic error on a Bland-Altman plot. The application of this equation for the cross-validation group (14 women and 11 men) did not yield a significant difference between the measured (7.2 ± 1.6 kg) or estimated (7.2 ± 1.6 kg) LTM and systematic error.

Conclusion

The developed prediction equation may be useful for estimating the lean tissue mass of the lower extremity for the healthy Japanese middle-aged and older population.     

Caloric restriction augments radiation efficacy in breast cancer

Dietary modification such as caloric restriction (CR) has been shown to decrease tumor initiation and progression. We sought to determine if nutrient restriction could be used as a novel therapeutic intervention to enhance cytotoxic therapies such as radiation (IR) and alter the molecular profile of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), which displays a poor prognosis. In two murine models of TNBC, significant tumor regression is noted with IR or diet modification, and a greater regression is observed combining diet modification with IR. Two methods of diet modification were compared, and it was found that a daily 30% reduction in total calories provided more significant tumor regression than alternate day feeding. At the molecular level, tumors treated with CR and IR showed less proliferation and more apoptosis. cDNA array analysis demonstrated the IGF-1R pathway plays a key role in achieving this physiologic response, and multiple members of the IGF-1R pathway including IGF-1R, IRS, PIK3ca and mTOR were found to be downregulated. The innovative use of CR as a novel therapeutic option has the potential to change the biology of tumors and enhance the opportunity for clinical benefit in the treatment of patients with TNBC.     

Mantel test in population genetics

The comparison of genetic divergence or genetic distances, estimated by pairwise F_ST and related statistics, with geographical distances by Mantel test is one of the most popular approaches to evaluate spatial processes driving population structure. There have been, however, recent criticisms and discussions on the statistical performance of the Mantel test. Simultaneously, alternative frameworks for data analyses are being proposed. Here, we review the Mantel test and its variations, including Mantel correlograms and partial correlations and regressions. For illustrative purposes, we studied spatial genetic divergence among 25 populations of Dipteryx alata (“Baru”), a tree species endemic to the Cerrado, the Brazilian savannas, based on 8 microsatellite loci. We also applied alternative methods to analyze spatial patterns in this dataset, especially a multivariate generalization of Spatial Eigenfunction Analysis based on redundancy analysis. The different approaches resulted in similar estimates of the magnitude of spatial structure in the genetic data. Furthermore, the results were expected based on previous knowledge of the ecological and evolutionary processes underlying genetic variation in this species. Our review shows that a careful application and interpretation of Mantel tests, especially Mantel correlograms, can overcome some potential statistical problems and provide a simple and useful tool for multivariate analysis of spatial patterns of genetic divergence.